円安の進行 景気への副作用に目配りせよ

The Yomiuri Shimbun
Govt, BOJ must watch carefully for economic side effects of weak yen
円安の進行 景気への副作用に目配りせよ

The yen’s weakness, which has served as a tailwind for the national economy, will no longer be welcomed without reserve if it goes too far.
 日本経済の追い風となってきた円安も、行き過ぎれば手放しでは歓迎できなくなる。

The government and the Bank of Japan must conduct policy management that also keeps an eye out for side effects from the weak yen.
 政府・日銀は、円安の副作用にも目配りした政策運営に努めるべきだ。

The yen’s exchange rate, which recently stabilized at around ¥100 to the U.S. dollar, has seen a radical swing to the weaker side in the past month, with the rate approaching the ¥110 level Friday for the first time in six years.
 1ドル=100円近辺で安定していた円相場が、ここ1か月で大きく円安に振れ、先週末には約6年ぶりの110円台に迫った。

One of the primary factors behind the shift is that prospects of a U.S. interest rate hike became stronger due to the country’s firm business climate. As a result, the selling of yen for dollar purchases has accelerated.
 景気が堅調な米国の利上げ観測が強まり、円売り・ドル買いが加速したことが主因である。

The Federal Reserve Board has announced that its quantitative easing policies such as purchasing government bonds will end in October. The U.S. central bank also disclosed an “exit strategy” for returning to a more normal monetary policy by ending its zero-interest policy.
 米連邦準備制度理事会(FRB)は、国債購入などの量的金融緩和策を10月で終えると表明した。ゼロ金利政策を解除し、異例の金融緩和を通常に戻す「出口戦略」の計画も公表した。

On the other hand, Japan has limped along in terms of business recovery since the consumption tax rate was raised to 8 percent in April. Central bank Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda has showed a willingness to carry out additional monetary easing.
 これに対し、日本は消費税率引き上げ後に景気がもたつき、黒田東彦日銀総裁が追加金融緩和も辞さない構えを見せている。

Speaking at a news conference held after a meeting of finance ministers and central governors from a Group of 20 principal economies, U.S. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew expressed disappointment with the economic growth of Japan and the eurozone. The strong dollar is expected to continue for the time being.
 主要20か国・地域(G20)財務相・中央銀行総裁会議の記者会見でルー米財務長官は、「ユーロ圏と日本の成長には失望させられている」と述べた。「強いドル」の局面は当面、続くと見られる。

Radical changes in foreign exchange rates are another concern. The government and the central bank are urged to bolster their monitoring of any speculative moves that could cause violent fluctuations.
 気がかりなのは、為替相場の動きが激しいことだ。乱高下につながる投機の動きはないか、政府・日銀は監視を強めてほしい。

The big picture

The weak yen expands corporate exchange gains from exports and revenues raised overseas. The Nikkei Stock Average at the Tokyo Stock Exchange has recovered to the ¥16,000 level for the first time in eight months, obviously reflecting the market’s straightforward appreciation of the favorable effect of the weaker yen on corporate performance.
 円安は、企業の輸出代金や海外で上げた収益の為替差益を拡大させる。東京市場の平均株価が約8か月ぶりに1万6000円台を回復した。業績への円安メリットを素直に評価しているのだろう。

But looking at the Japanese economy as a whole, there are negative aspects to a weak yen.
 ただ、日本経済全体を見ると、円安には「負の側面」もある。

A weakening of the yen by ¥10 against the dollar will push up the combined profits of listed companies by ¥1.9 trillion, according to an estimate by Mizuho Bank. Unlisted firms, on the other hand, will see a profit decrease of ¥1.2 trillion.
 みずほ銀行の推計によると、円安が10円進めば、上場企業には計1・9兆円の増益効果がある一方、非上場企業は逆に1・2兆円の減益になるという。

The weak yen gives meager benefits to small and midsize firms not engaged in exports or overseas operations, as well as retail and service companies relying on domestic demand. Furthermore, these businesses will have to shoulder additional costs caused by steeply rising prices for imported raw materials and power rates. Thus, their operations are facing additional financial pressure.
 輸出や海外展開に縁のない中小企業や、小売り、サービスなど内需産業は円安メリットが乏しい。それに加え、輸入原材料や電気料金の高騰などでコストはかさむため、経営は圧迫される。

It is worrying that excessive weakening of the yen may put small and midsize firms into a predicament.
 過剰な円安で、中小企業が苦境に陥らないか心配である。

Structural changes of the national economy are also a factor that cannot be overlooked. With progress in transferring production centers overseas, domestic production and exports cannot expand as greatly as before even if the yen weakens.
 経済の構造的な変化も見過ごせない観点だ。生産拠点の海外移転が進み、円安でも国内生産や輸出が以前ほど増えなくなった。

It is safe to say that it has become difficult for the benefits of the weak yen to be translated into the expansion of job opportunities and wage hikes. It is feared that continued sharp price increases for necessities such as imported food and gasoline amid stagnant household income could keep consumption sluggish, thereby stalling business recovery.
 円安の恩恵が、雇用増や賃上げとして国内に還元されにくくなったと言える。家計の所得が伸びない状況で、輸入食品やガソリンなど必需品の高騰が続けば、消費が低迷し、景気回復の足を引っ張る懸念があろう。

It is urgent to analyze in detail the impacts of the weaker yen on the national economy.
 円安が景気に与える影響を、詳細に分析することが急務だ。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Sept. 23, 2014)Speech

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srachai について

early retired civil engineer migrated from Tokyo to Thailand
カテゴリー: 英字新聞 パーマリンク

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